Reply to 3-1 rk | PSY-380

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Hello Class and Professor, the following are my thoughts on the probability of receiving heads vs tail utilizing a fair coin.

As the textbook states, probability is a statistical technique that is defined as a fraction that determines the likelihood of an outcome compared to all possible outcomes within a given situation (Gravetter et al., 2021). The measurement of probability is dependent on the frequency, or occurrence, of the measured outcome compared against all possible outcomes. For example, the textbook demonstrates probability by utilizing a jar of 100 marbles, consisting of 50 white marbles and 50 black marbles. The textbook then asks what the likelihood, or probability, of a person drawing a white marble is. Within this example, there are two possible outcomes, a black or white marble. Each of these outcomes make up half of the jar’s contents, with each consisting of 50 marbles. With the definition of probability in mind, the probability of selecting a white marble becomes a fraction of 50/100, or ½. In other words, there is a 50% chance that the marble selected will be white (Gravetter et al., 2021).

The example of the fair coin has a very similar outcome compared to the example that utilized marbles. Referring to a coin as a “fair coin” insists that it is a standard coin with one side displaying heads and the other side displaying tails. With that in mind, there are only two possible outcomes that can be achieved when the coin is flipped, which are heads or tails. That being said, the probability of receiving either outcome per flip is ½, or 50%. Since the probability is 50% it would be incorrect to state that one would be more likely to receive one outcome over the other in this situation.

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